Republicans'
2004 strategy
June 25, 2003
I have consistently
expressed confidence that barring some unforeseen set of extraordinary
circumstances, President George W. Bush would be handily re-elected
in 2004. But that's a far cry from expecting an emerging Republican
dominance.
Because the electorate trusts President Bush at a time that trust
in leaders is paramount, I still believe that he is the hands-down
favorite in 2004, no matter which candidate the Democrats select
to challenge him. But while Bush is very popular and his unprecedented
fundraising successes continue to dazzle, there is no guaranty
he'll have sufficient coattails to usher in a substantial Republican
congressional majority.
Besides, it's not
enough to have a nominal majority; moderate and liberal Republicans
impede conservative policy initiatives as often as not. So for
those conservatives who care about policy more than party, the
goal is not just a strong majority of nominal Republicans in both
houses, but a predominance of voting conservatives in the House
and Senate.
But I'm not setting
up a scenario for massive infighting between Republican Party
loyalists and conservatives over control. While their ultimate
aims certainly differ, their paths to achieving them are harmonious.
That is, the best chance for Republicans to pick up congressional
seats is to recruit conservative candidates.
Here's the rub. Apparently,
some high-placed Republican operatives believe the best way to
improve on Republican majorities is to find congressional candidates
with Bush's popular style. But cloning President Bush is the wrong
way to go.
In the first place,
no one (other than Clonaid's experimental subjects) can be cloned,
and Bush is particularly unique. What works for him may not work
well for other candidates. Personality traits and matters of style
are not transferable.
Republican Party honchos
need to quit thinking about the cult of personality thing that
starts and ends with President Bush, just like it did with Ronald
Reagan. They can trade on Bush's enormous popularity and credibility
with the voters to be sure, but they would be better advised,
I think, to nationalize the elections on substantive policy issues
than to make every congressional race a mini referendum on President
Bush's performance.
No, you argue, the
country is still evenly divided between conservatives and liberals,
and focusing on issues will work in the Democrats' favor by neutralizing
the advantage Republicans have in Bush's popularity. Not at all.
Again, I'm not saying
that President Bush should stay out of the picture. He should
be leading the charge in nationalizing the election, saying he
needs his majorities to better guaranty homeland security, a sound,
coherent foreign policy, the restoration of economic growth and
that the country maintain the proper direction on vital social
issues.
As for the country
being evenly divided between liberals and conservatives, it's
not that simple. While it is in the Democrats' interest to foster
the notion that the nation is deadlocked between the blue states
and red states, and will remain so for the foreseeable future,
I'm not so sure that's the case. Thus, Republicans shouldn't be
conned into believing that a conservative policy agenda won't
work, because it can and will if properly packaged.
Regardless of the
current percentages of liberals and conservatives in the electorate,
issues and circumstances appear to be trending in favor of conservatives.
No one can deny how the war on terror has changed the dynamic
in favor of Republicans on national security and foreign policy
issues.
The rising investor
class also benefits Republicans because it provides a built-in
institutional counterforce against Democratic demagoguery aimed
at pitting economic groups against one another.
Also, consider the
abortion issue, which Democrats tend to exploit more than Republicans.
You'll note that feminists and Democratic candidates persist in
pretending their anti-life agenda is the majority view, but recent
polling data reveals the opposite. Advances in science and technology
are working in favor of the unborn; it's increasingly difficult
for pro-choicers to say that those 4D ultrasound images are depicting
mere unviable masses of tissue.
So in all three major
issue categories, foreign policy/national security, economic and
social, things are looking promising for Republicans. (I know
demographic trends are arguably working against Republicans, but
that's also not as simple as some have depicted it. That discussion,
however, will have to wait for another column).
For 2004, Republicans
should embrace, not sidestep the issues, adopting a top-down conservative
policy approach. That's the best way to move this country in the
right direction. And it happens to be the surest way to get Republicans
elected on a national scale.
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