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Squaring expectations with reality
March 26, 2003
Monday, the
Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 307 points. Sure, the recent
uptick had to level off at some point, but this dramatic drop,
I think, is based on largely unwarranted concerns over the war.
In the first
few days of the war we constantly heard of how immaculately our
forces were performing. In a brilliant display of executive decisiveness
and flexibility, President Bush, based on extraordinary intelligence
data, authorized a strike against the bunker in which they believe
Saddam Hussein and his two sons were sleeping at dawn Thursday.
Incredibly,
despite all the hype leading up to it, the attack achieved the
element of surprise. No one, including the Iraqis, thought we
would launch our first strike at the onset of daylight.
From there,
the good news just kept getting better. Further intelligence led
us to believe that we either killed or severely injured Saddam
and his sons, thereby critically damaging, if not severing, the
head of the Iraqi regime in the very first strike of the war.
We were assured Iraqi troops were surrendering so fast that allied
forces didn't have time to process them all. Ex-military TV commentators
were delighted with the simultaneous military attack against remaining
terrorists in Afghanistan. They were gushing over the Pentagon's
decision to begin the ground war right off the bat. They were
blown away by the deftness with which our troops were negotiating
the difficult desert terrain in their unprecedented lightning
advance toward Baghdad. They were crowing about our military's
foresight in dispatching Navy Seals and other special forces to
secure the oil fields to prevent a repeat of Saddam's Gulf War
I scorched-earth torching of oil fields. Things couldn't have
appeared much brighter for allied forces in those first few days.
Then, reality
set in. Events unfolded that sobered us into the realization that
this wasn't the video game some had apparently allowed themselves
to believe it was and that instead of rolling over, many Iraqis
were fighting back -- and fiercely, within their comparatively
limited capabilities.
This resistance
shouldn't have been regarded as a setback. No one should have
anticipated an effortless war in the first place. Neither the
administration nor the Pentagon had such expectations. Perhaps
it was because of the way Iraq's ground forces were so solidly
decimated 12 years ago. But after all, Saddam and his henchmen
doubtlessly learned lessons from that war, including that his
forces are no match for American troops in the open field. Only
by adopting terrorist tactics like the terrorists they are --
hiding among civilians and often in civilian clothing, and violating
rules of war by staging false surrenders -- would they have a
chance to slow us down.
Perhaps the
first wave of reality hit when "shock and awe" wasn't
quite as spectacular as some had imagined it would be. The fireworks
were dramatic, and the precision of the strikes was awe-inspiring,
but life in Baghdad appeared to return to normal way too quickly.
Iraqi command and control, though damaged and maybe headless,
remained defiant. Much of the bombing thereafter, both in Baghdad
and throughout Iraq, occurred out of the view of our excellent
media camera coverage.
Next, we
learned of the Muslim airborne ranger's grenade attack on his
own American unit, the televised torment and humiliation of our
soldiers who were captured by deceit, and friendly fire (patriot
missile) casualties. These incidents, coupled with our embedded
media now reporting on "surprise pockets of resistance"
and some combat casualties seemed to cast a pall over our flawless
progress of the first few days.
But there
should be no such pall. Those with unrealistic expectations just
need to come back down to earth. The administration and the military
are doing a phenomenal job, and we should all be proud. But we
should also give them a break, recognizing that while they're
nearly supermen, they're not individually indestructible or bulletproof.
Even if Saddam's
troops don't surrender in the first phase of our assault on Baghdad
and continue to resist fiercely, we're going to win this war,
resoundingly and in relatively short order. And we're going to
do so with the least amount of civilian casualties and damage,
which is why it may take a little longer.
We should
be exceedingly proud of our military and unflinchingly optimistic
about the ultimate success of their mission: disarmament and liberation.
This is war, and no one does it better than the United States
military -- but it's still a war.
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